Análise da viabilidade econômica de projetos de sistema fotovoltaicos ligados à rede utilizando a Teoria de Opções Reais (TOR)

Abstract

The Brazilian market for residential photovoltaic systems has grown in recent years due to incentive policies, cost reductions and changes in regulatory policies. Thus, the calculation of the value of such investments is not trivial. Traditional economic feasibility analysis methodologies are not suitable for analyzing photovoltaic systems due to the high uncertainty of their variables and considering the investment decision as “now or never”, not considering the flexibilities that exist in the real world for such a decision. Because of this, the real options theory emerges as a more adequate tool for calculating the economic viability of photovoltaic investments, as it includes the possibility of analyzing the ideal moment of investment. Thus, this work aims to measure the value of photovoltaic residential projects using the real options methodology and the ideal investment time. A case study was carried out considering three households with different energy consumption to observe the effect of uncertainties and options on economic viability. The results showed that under an uncertain energy tariff scenario, the investor is losing value by not investing in such projects. This demonstrates that photovoltaic systems are already viable investment options. Finally, the methodology developed in the work was used to evaluate different proposals for changing the remuneration system for residential energy generators. The results of this analysis indicated that the most extreme proposals to reduce such remuneration can postpone investments in photovoltaic panels that would be profitable under the current rules.