Determinação da taxa de juros: uma aplicação da regra de Taylor usando estudo de painel

Abstract

This dissertation describes a Taylor-type reaction function for Brazil, Germany and The United States during the period 1980-2002 and in three subsamples. The developed function contemplates a gradual adjustment of the reaction function, where the variation of the nominal interest rate reacts to the lagged nominal interest rate, to its own lagged variation, when changings occur in the inflation rate, in the output gap and in the lagged output gap. For the estimate we used the panel data method not so much explored in the literature. In addition the reaction function, as proposal, the rule of original Taylor was estimated. The results suggest that as much the Taylor rule than the proposal estimated reaction function adjusts better to the group of countries in the period of 1980-2002, showed partially the expected results.